Ontario Mortgage Outlook September 2025

Seventy Seven Park
Sep 9, 2025
2 min read

What pressures are households facing as mortgage renewals approach? How are delinquency rates changing across Ontario? Should you act now or wait for the Bank of Canada’s next decision?

September’s mortgage outlook points to three defining themes: renewal shocks, climbing delinquencies, and a pivotal Bank of Canada announcement.

Mortgage Renewals: Higher Payments Ahead

More than one million mortgages are set to renew in 2025 and 2026. According to nesto, roughly 60 percent of those households will face higher monthly payments compared to their existing terms. For many, this represents an average increase of about 10 percent, putting pressure on household budgets and borrowing capacity.

Delinquencies Rising Across Ontario

Ontario’s 90-day mortgage delinquency rate has increased by 71.5 percent year-over-year, according to local reporting. While the absolute numbers remain low, the pace of growth is notable.

CIBC’s most recent earnings report shows its regional 90-day delinquency rate climbing to 0.36 percent, up from the previous quarter. Canadian Mortgage Trends notes that defaults remain manageable overall, but the trend underlines why renewal planning is so important.

The Next Bank of Canada Decision

The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is scheduled for September 17, 2025 at 9:45 AM ET, along with a Monetary Policy Report.

Markets are heavily anticipating another rate cut. Reuters reports that the probability of easing is now above 90 percent, driven by weaker job data and continued uncertainty around inflation.

A cut would ease the burden slightly for borrowers renewing this fall, but most households will still face higher payments than their current terms.

Person in red shirt observes a partially stripped room. Text: Seventy Seven Park Blog Post - Renoviction Bylaw: What Landlords Need to Know.

What Borrowers Should Do Now

For renewals: Do not wait until the last minute. Even with rate cuts expected, lenders are scrutinizing renewals more closely due to rising delinquencies.

For new buyers: Lower borrowing costs could help affordability, but you may face stricter approval guidelines. Have financing pre-arranged to strengthen your position.

For current homeowners: If your budget will be stretched at renewal, explore options such as term adjustments, blended rates, or refinancing strategies. Speaking with a mortgage broker early ensures you have more tools available.

Key Takeaway

The Ontario mortgage outlook for September 2025 reflects more than low rates. Renewal shocks, higher delinquency rates, and a critical Bank of Canada decision are shaping conditions. Proactive planning can help borrowers reduce risk and position themselves for long-term stability.

At Seventy Seven Park, we help borrowers across Ontario make smarter decisions about renewals, refinancing, and new mortgages. Our strategies are tailored to your unique financial picture.